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2008-10-12 | 今年诺贝尔经济学奖的“临终”预测
STOCKHOLM, Oct. 13 (Xinhua) -- U.S. economist Paul Krugman Monday won the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics "for his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity."
Krugman was born on February 28, 1953, in Long Island, New York state, the United States.
He earned a Ph.D. at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1997 and has been professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University since 2000.
He has also taught at Yale University, the London School of Economics, Stanford, and MIT.
Krugman, 55, is well known in academia for his work in trade theory and his textbook explanations of currency crises and New Trade Theory.
In an article published in 1991, he developed the concepts about economic geography into a comprehensive theory of location of labor and firms.
"Paul Krugman has formulated a new theory to answer a series of questions, such as what the effects of free trade and globalization are and what the driving forces behind worldwide urbanization are," the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said in a statement.
Krugman's work has thereby integrated the previously disparate research fields of international trade and economic geography, the statement said.
"By having shown the effects of economics of scale on trade patterns and on the location of economic activity, Krugman's theory have given rise to an extensive reorientation of the research on these issues."
He is an ardent critic of the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush and its domestic and foreign policies.
He has also written 20 books and more than 200 papers in professional journals.
Winning the Nobel award won't change his approach to research and writing, Krugman told a news conference in Stockholm by telephone from the United States.
"The prize will enhance visibility, but I hope it does not lead me into going to a lot of purely celebration events, aside from the Nobel presentation itself," he said.
Besides his work as an economist at Princeton University in New Jersey, Krugman also writes a regular column in The New York Times and has a blog called "Conscience of a Liberal."
不是我的预测，我也不感兴趣这类预测，不过，这里转贴的博客的作者是我喜欢的一位：
October 10, 2008, 9:45 am
I can’t believe there is much demand for it, but the online betting site Pinnacle Sports is taking wagers on this year’s Nobel Prize in economics. Here are the odds they are offering as of my writing this post:
101 Martin Feldstein +751
102 Thomas Sargent +1181
103 Robert Barro +1341
104 Paul Romer +1344
105 Jagdish Bhagwati +1359
106 Paul Krugman +1617
107 N. Gregory Mankiw +4310
108 Any other person -136
My hunch is that the bargain here is “any other person.” There is plenty of randomness in the choices each year, and this list excludes a number of people who I would think would be on the short list, e.g. Gene Fama, Peter Diamond, Oliver Hart, and Richard Posner, just to name a few.
I have a colleague who told me some time back that he had identified a strong leading indicator of economists who think they are on the short list for winning the prize: getting a haircut the week before the Nobel is announced. He claims to have many data points supporting his theory.
The economics Nobel is announced Monday. If I’m not mistaken, this very colleague is sporting a snazzy new haircut.
14 comments so far...
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1.
Paul Krugman? I’ll take “other”, thank you.
— Posted by Hal
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2.
I’m surprised that the total vig only adds up to 6%.
— Posted by Edward Lee
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3.
I beleive that is the same Paul Krugman of textbook fame, who makes my job grading a pain. Go Mankiw!
— Posted by Marty
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4.
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics is worthless, as recently evidenced by the utter failure of many of the grand theories that have been spouted out by the laureates. Read the acceptance speech of Friedrich Hayek, one of the very few who actually deserved the award (and also wanted it abolished): http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/ 1974/hayek-lecture.html
— Posted by PDB
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5.
I think if Barro wins it should be shared with Summers and Heston.
Econometricians are absent from the list, which might be dangerous given that it’s five years since Engle and Granger. I’m not a Bayesian but I suspect that Zellner might be in with a shot.
— Posted by Hughes
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6.
#4 PDB
As a fervent disciple of the information asymmetry work done by Akerlof and Stiglitz (2001 Nobel), I say shame on you, sir!
‘Course, no one’s figured out what to do with it yet, thus limiting its practical value… but still!
— Posted by Hunter
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7.
what? no Bernanke? uh oh, we must really be in deep kimshe
— Posted by frankenduf
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8.
What a useless exercise. The field is too large for a single prize - I hope that the prize is given this year to someone who helped us learn how to measure risk. This person should share the prize with whoever made the observation that there is a downside to taking a gamble.
— Posted by S. Heaton
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9.
I think the vote for Mankiw is due to a) his public profile, on the blogs and in the Administration and b) his textbook.
If it’s possible, short him.
I would say Paul Romer, for his early work and not his developmental work (obviously). Baghwati and Krugman may win simultaneously on trade theory someday.
— Posted by Funkhauser
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10.
On the other hand Heaton, there are few upsides to those who don’t gamble.
I’m hoping for a swede :-)
— Posted by Peter
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11.
Thomson Reuters’s predictions for the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics appear at: http://scientific.thomsonreuters.com/nobel/nominees/#ec onomics
— Posted by David Pendlebury
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12.
I can’t comprehend why William Baumol (Princeton, NYU) has not yet won the Nobel. He is one of the greats of the 20th century and still great in the 21st. The scope of his scholarly output is awe inspiring. Perhaps that’s the problem. The Nobel Committee likes technicians, not Renaissance men or women.
— Posted by Richard England
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13.
Interesting that no one has even thought of naming someone who was faithful to Keynes’s analytical framework — although newspaper editorials around the world are calling for a return of Keynes’s economics in theie editorials , letters to the editor, op-ed pieces, and other articles– e.g., The Guardian, the New York Times, The Washington Post to name a few.
— Posted by paul davidson
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14.
I bet on Janos Kornai of Hungary. A true maverick, Kornai developed critical models of centrally-planned economies. He’s a model of the kind of thinking we need more of as our current system morphs into something new.
— Posted by john kadvany
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